NEWS

What Australian wine can expect in the US in 2025 and beyond.

In the leadup to the inauguration of Donald Trump as the President of the United States of America (US) on 20 January 2025, there were many questions about what we could expect more broadly from the Trump Administration.

Alcohol and health policy in the United States

Late in the Biden Administration, a number of US Government processes relating to alcohol and health policy were initiated:

  • Health Warning Labels – On 3 January 2025, the outgoing US Surgeon General Vivek Murthy, published an Advisory claiming that the scientific evidence demonstrates a causal relationship between alcohol use and increased risk for at least seven different types of cancer. He went on to recommend that the US Congress update the US Surgeon General’s warning label for alcohol-containing beverages to include cancer risk.
  • ‘Alcohol Facts’ – Nutritional information labelling – On 17 January 2025 – The US Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau (TTB) published Notice No. 237 for  proposed rulemaking on ‘Alcohol Facts Statements in the Labeling of Wines, Distilled Spirits, and Malt Beverages’. The proposed requirements would require disclosure of serving size of the product; the number of servings per container; alcohol content as a percentage of alcohol by volume; the number of fluid ounces of pure ethyl alcohol per serving; the number of calories per serving; and the number, in grams per serving, of carbohydrates, fat, and protein.
  • Allergen labelling – Also on 17 January 2025,  TTB notified Notice No. 238, we propose to require a label disclosure of all major food allergens used in the production of alcohol beverages subject. Under the proposed regulations, unless an exception applies, labels must declare milk, eggs, fish, crustacean shellfish, tree nuts, wheat, peanuts, soybeans, and sesame, as well as ingredients that contain protein derived from these foods, if used in the production of the alcohol beverage.

Both the Alcohol Facts and Allergen labelling requirements have been under consideration for some time with consultation launched last year by TTB into a raft of labelling related changes. Both notices envisage a 5-year transition period from implementation and have a 90 day comment period, with comments due by 17 April 2025.

Where these processes now sit within the new Trump Administration’s priorities is uncertain.

The U.S. Surgeon General is nominated by the President of the United States and confirmed by the Senate. President Trump has nominated Dr Janette Nesheiwat, a physician and former Fox News presenter. This appointment is yet to be confirmed by the Senate but will be highly influential in progression of a number of alcohol related health outcomes for the US. 

The US is also undergoing a process to review its overarching health guidelines with significant focus being placed on the impact of the US food and beverage on overall health and wellbeing. Also critical to this will be the new Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS). Trump has nominated Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK) with the nominee currently undergoing scrutiny of the Senate. While it is unknown what exactly RFK’s appointment may mean for some of the actions above, he has given some clear indications that one of his core mandates will be to reform American food industries targeting processed foods, in particular food additives, as a major dietary concern. He has also publicly noted his past struggles with substance abuse and that he now abstains from alcohol and drugs as a result.  

A further influencing factor in global health outcomes, was President Trump’s signing of an executive order for a 12-month notice period for the United States to withdraw from the World Health Organisation (WHO) and cease all financial contributions to its work. The US is the WHO’s largest financial contributor and its withdrawal of funds could have much broader impacts on global health and the capacity of the WHO. We understand that this withdrawal will not impact the US position as a member of Codex Alimentarius Commission as they remain a member of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

Trade and market access

The Geopolitical landscape is set to remain turbulent and uncertain. President Trump has made it clear that his administration will be seeking to apply tariffs on certain countries such as Colombia, Canada and Mexico, with the aim of addressing a broad range of issues, often beyond the realm of the economic relationship with any one country. For example, President Trump has raised immigration and drug importation as key concerns for his administration.

Given this, we are likely to see an uptick in trade disputes, with direct and indirect consequences. While the direct impacts would relate to how Australia and the US decide to manage the bilateral trading relationship, the indirect consequences of other actions – including anything relating to the World Trade Organization (WTO) – could have equally significant ramifications.  

We can also expect things to move quickly, as we’ve already seen with disputes between US and Colombia, Canada, Mexico and China. Most recently, on 2 February 2025, the Trump administration announced, tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods of 25% were set to enter into force on 4 February 2025. However by February 3, US, Canada and Mexico made subsequent announcements that tariffs “will be paused for at least 30 days” while the parties worked together to resolve their issues.  

 Despite the uncertainty, AGW is keen to provide some insights into the US market today, and what it could look like in the future..

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